No one likes to get ripped off. No one wants to be scammed. No one wants to buy something that doesn’t work properly. And nobody wants to get ghosted by a generous prince in a far-away land who needs an up-front payment through the interwebs before sharing his wealth with you.
And if you’re reading this, you definitely don’t want to draft a player who doesn’t end up delivering for your Fantasy Football team.
This whole space is a goodwill gesture to help you avoid busts in your Fantasy draft. And the bust label is relative — sometimes players who we don’t want on our teams fall in drafts and actually become good values. But we’d weed those kinds of guys out through the magic of average draft position (ADP).
That’s why my bust list will not only show the players I’m not drafting based on CBS Sports and FantasyPros’ PPR average draft position as of late August, but where I would take them if they ended up slipping. Most of my busts are guys who I believe are being taken one round too soon.
So here are the fellas I’m letting other people draft at their current ADP, listed in order of the aforementioned ADP.
A note on quarterbacks Most folks are resisting QBs in Round 1 in one-QB formats. That’s good. But they’re still going after the likes of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in Round 2. That’s not good. Here’s the CBS Sports ADP on the top quarterbacks — a list that gets crazier as it goes along:
Lamar Jackson 17.0Josh Allen, 17.2Joe Burrow 26.3Jayden Daniels 32.3Jalen Hurts 32.4Patrick Mahomes 49.0Baker Mayfield 57.3Bo Nix 74.7Mayfield is arguably the most egregious of the bunch, but pretty much everyone else feels like a straight-up reach. Remember, the depth of quarterbacks with 20-point-per-game expectations remains strong. Mayfield and Nix might average 22 Fantasy points per game, but the two-point difference between them and others who could be had as late as the double-digit rounds isn’t worth the top-75 ADP.
You could make a case for the first five or six passers on this list to be taken as early as they are because they’re the select quarterbacks who could be statistically awesome. But I’m only interested in them at a value, not at these ADPs. That’s because I cannot let my opponents grab a RB or WR in those same spots while I take a position they’ll find a bargain at later in the draft. It’s bad roster construction.
CBS Sports ADP: 3.2
FantasyPros ADP: 3.3
2024 Fantasy stats: 22.2 PPR points per game
He’s sorta bust-ish because … Let me be clear: I do believe Barkley is worth a first-round pick. Just not a top-five pick in PPR or a top-four pick in half- or non-PPR. Barkley is easy to root for and a clear leader in the Eagles offense. But the track record of backs who have had as much work as he had last year, combined with his own history of decline the year after a big workload, makes me nervous to expect another massive year. All of the information points to anywhere from a small decline (12% or so with some games missed) to a disappointing campaign (several games missed and/or as much as a 25% decline in production). Let your leaguemates take him with a top-five pick — and make sure you know what you’re getting into before you take the 28-year-old with any pick.
I’d draft him: Eighth or later in PPR, fifth or later in non-PPR
CBS Sports ADP: 33.8
FantasyPros ADP: 35.2
2024 Fantasy stats: 15.1 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … Jets coach Aaron Glenn recently insisted — again — that he wants to use three running backs as part of the Jets offense. That doesn’t include quarterback Justin Fields, who would be a fourth set of legs to run the ball. Between that and Fields’ own inefficiency reading defenses and throwing deep (an issue that’s been brought up by intrepid reporters in camp), it’s a safe bet that the Jets will be one of the most slow-paced, low-scoring offenses in the league. Fields has started 44 career games — in those games, a running back has notched 15-plus PPR points 18 times, scored 25 times and totaled at least 100 yards 11 times. Those are ugly averages staring Hall in the face. While he’s easily the most talented runner Fields will have ever worked with, even he will split reps with other running backs to some degree, not to mention lose out on valuable touches to Fields. Lastly, the Jets’ first three games are against the Steelers, Bills and Buccaneers, three consistently strong run defenses.
I’d draft him: Round 5
CBS Sports ADP: 44.4
FantasyPros ADP: 40.5
2024 Fantasy stats: 15.8 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … This one’s tricky, because I expect McLaurin to be the same ol’ stud he’s always been — 4.5 catches per game, 65 or so yards per game, and with Jayden Daniels, a nice number of touchdowns. But I don’t think he’ll be his ol’ self for at least a month after he rounds into game shape following an extensive period of not practicing with the team. And while McLaurin hasn’t worked out with the team, Deebo Samuel has, and he might be on the verge of filling a downfield role for the Commanders like McLaurin. I think it’s OK to draft McLaurin but not at this price tag.
I’d draft him: Round 5
CBS Sports ADP: 52.1
FantasyPros ADP: 59.3
2024 Fantasy stats: 12.6 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … Over Swift’s past three seasons he’s averaged 13.7, 12.5 and 12.6 PPR points per game. Yeah, sure, that might be good enough to be a top-24 running back by the end of the season, but it’s not one anyone would be thrilled to start. And just because he’s reunited with Ben Johnson doesn’t mean he’s going to magically become a stat machine — if it’s anything like his time in Detroit with Johnson (before the Lions traded him), it means he won’t get a lot of goal-line carries. I suspect the Bears will give Swift plenty of help with the rushing workload, and I also suspect the Bears improved offensive line won’t be as good as they had hoped, especially after the unit struggled to run the ball consistently in joint practices against the Dolphins and Bills. Taking a back like this in Round 6 is cake; early Round 5 is a reach, especially ahead of R.J. Harvey, David Montgomery and even Tony Pollard.
I’d draft him: Round 6/Round 7
CBS Sports ADP: 53.0
FantasyPros ADP: 64.3
2024 Fantasy stats: 14.2 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … The trade capital spent by the Vikings to bring in Jordan Mason shouldn’t scare you, but the constant talk of a two-headed even-split backfield should. Jones should keep a hammerlock on any passing downs, including third downs and anytime the Vikings trail in the second half of games. But as far as short-yardage plays and potentially even running downs, Mason figures to have an edge. And it’s not that I’d rather have Mason than Jones straight up, it’s that Mason’s ADP of 101.5 is wayyy easier to chase than Jones’ egregious Round 5 ADP. It definitely doesn’t help that Jones is turning 31 this season and had seven games with 13-plus PPR points out of 17 last season.
I’d draft him: Round 7/Round 8
CBS Sports ADP: 53.6
FantasyPros ADP: 48.7
2024 Fantasy stats: 14.0 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … Moore finished last season as a reliable short-area target for Caleb Williams, corralling 9.3 targets per game in his final eight on a 5.7 average depth of target for a wonderful 17.2 PPR points per game. I think his role will be similar but the target volume figures to plunge. That’s because the Bears not only have a burgeoning star in second-year receiver Rome Odunze, but two first-rounders — tight end Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden III — will also command work. But it’s not just them — tertiary targets like D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Olamide Zaccheaus won’t suck of lots of volume, but it could be enough to impact everyone else in the offense. And while I’m less concerned about Williams’ arm, I am very concerned about how well Chicago’s offensive line gives Williams time to throw. I’m nervous that Moore’s best games will come when defensive coverage falls apart, and that’s not the way to find reliable Fantasy starters.
I’d draft him: Round 6
CBS Sports ADP: 62.0
FantasyPros ADP: 63.5
2024 Fantasy stats: 12.2 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … The Chiefs offense continues to evolve as they put an emphasis on attacking defenses downfield, meaning fewer targets for Kelce as a short-area security blanket for Mahomes. There’s also the worry of how many opportunities Kelce will get in the games Rashee Rice is active for — last season the tight end had 4, 3 and 5 targets in the three games Rice played in. That trend actually started in late 2023 when Rice started to pick up regular-season work and Kelce had seven or fewer targets in five of his final six in the regular season. It’s so weird putting Kelce on a bust list, but it’s totally warranted — he’s still of starting quality but must get picked at the right value.
I’d draft him: Round 7/Round 8
CBS Sports ADP: 63.4
FantasyPros ADP: 74.0
2024 Fantasy stats: 17.2 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … Even in the rosiest of scenarios, Mixon wouldn’t be counted on for a full season. His mysterious ankle and foot injuries have sidelined him all offseason. Whenever he’s ready to practice again, the thinking is that he’ll need several weeks to get himself back into game shape. And when he does come back he’ll rejoin a Texans team with a reconfigured offensive line, a new playcaller and a running back room loaded with above-average players who will probably be asked to help Mixon shoulder the workload. Mixon has now dealt with three separate injuries over the last calendar year — not good. And if we’re talking about best-case scenarios, we should also realize that the worst-case scenario is also possible: Mixon not playing at all in 2025.
I’d draft him: Around 100th overall
CBS Sports ADP: 66.0
FantasyPros ADP: 61.5
2024 Fantasy stats: 12.3 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … He’s a Round 5 pick who has never averaged more than 12.9 PPR points in either of his two seasons. It’s probably because he’s averaged right around 6.8 targets per game in his career and has caught six plus passes 11 times in 33 games. It doesn’t help that the Ravens don’t call his name too often in the red zone (20 career red-zone targets) and certainly won’t start now with DeAndre Hopkins best suited to win jump balls when Mark Andrews is covered. Flowers’ talent is actually awesome, but until the Ravens utilize it more often (they’re consistently one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL), Fantasy managers can’t count on him as anything more than a No. 3 option.
I’d draft him: Round 7
CBS Sports ADP: 76.0
FantasyPros ADP: 63.2
2024 Fantasy stats: 11.1 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … If he doesn’t score touchdowns like he did in chunks last season then he will be awful. From Week 6 on he averaged 4.6 targets per game — no receiver could survive on that small volume. As for his red-zone role, it still exists but you better believe that the Ravens’ addition of DeAndre Hopkins was meant to give Lamar Jackson another red-zone threat, especially after Andrews’ costly end-zone drop in the playoffs last January. We already saw Andrews post a six-year low of 11.1 PPR points per game in 2024, don’t be in on him when he fades again in 2025.
I’d draft him: Around 100th overall
CBS Sports ADP: 76.5
FantasyPros ADP: 74.8
2024 Fantasy stats: 8.7 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … Even though he’ll be over a year removed from a torn ACL, Hockenson’s role as a big-time target in the Vikings offense might be history. We saw Jordan Addison emerge as a red-zone weapon for Minnesota last year, and Justin Jefferson will always have his hands in every kind of role for the Vikes. Both of those receivers figure to land more targets from new Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has yet to establish himself as capable of getting good numbers out of two different targets, much less three. I don’t mind Hockenson at all while Addison is suspended, even with the Vikings’ receiver additions, but after that? I’d be nervous about him having good target share like he did in 2023.
I’d draft him: Around 100th overall
