NFL Week 3 odds created a back-and-forth battle between bookmakers and bettors. But the public betting masses got the best of it in the game with the wildest ending.
Jordan Davis blocked the Los Angeles Rams’ potential game-winning field goal. Then Davis, a 6-foot-6, 336-pound nose tackle, rumbled 61 yards for a touchdown to seal the Philadelphia Eagles’ 33-26 victory.
Said Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel:
“Significant crazy endings, 99 times out of a hundred, usually benefit the customers. And you could hear the hearts of Eagles spread ticket holders pounding, while they cheered a mountain of a man carrying their millions. … A thrilling way to cash a winning ticket.”
More on that fantastic finish and other notable outcomes, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
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Fly Eagles Fly
Philadelphia was a consensus 3.5-point home favorite against Los Angeles. Yet the Eagles found themselves in a 26-7 hole less than a minute into the third quarter, after Rams QB Matthew Stafford tossed a 10-yard touchdown pass to Kyren Williams.
But Philly rallied to take a 27-26 lead with 1:48 remaining in the fourth quarter, on a Jalen Hurts-to-DeVonta Smith 4-yard TD pass.
However, that left Stafford & Co. plenty of time to get in position for a field goal, which they did, a 44-yarder. But Davis broke through the line, blocked Joshua Karty’s kick and scooped up the ball.
At that point, with the clock expired, all Davis had to do was fall down. Had he done so, Philly wins and L.A. covers. That’s what BetMGM needed nationwide.
“An Eagles’ win but not covering is what we wanted. So we wanted that blocked kick but not the return,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said.
Ah, the return.
With a convoy of Eagles teammates blocking, Davis took it to the house for a 33-26 win and cover.
“That’s one of the craziest covers I’ve ever seen,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook in Vegas. “We wanted the Rams to win. Wild stuff.”
With oddsmakers, though, there’s almost always an exception to the rule. South Point in Las Vegas played that role for Rams-Eagles.
“The Eagles ended up being pretty good. We needed them to cover,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
Pack Whacked
Over the first two weeks of the NFL season, the Green Bay Packers were the toast of the town. In fact, even before their Week 1 home win over Detroit, the Packers were making noise in Super Bowl odds.
That’ll happen when you acquire a star such as Micah Parsons. After Green Bay got the edge rusher in a trade with Dallas, BetMGM moved the Packers from +2000 to +1200 to win the Super Bowl.
Then the Pack rolled over Detroit in Week 1 and Washington in Week 2. Green Bay moved all the way to the +650 third choice to win the Super Bowl, behind only favorite Buffalo (+500) and second choice Baltimore (+550).
But a little comeuppance arrived in Week 3, as the Packers stunningly lost at Cleveland 13-10. The Browns, 7.5-point home underdogs, won on a 55-yard Andre Szmyt field goal as time expired.
That was a boon for bookmakers.
“Great result. That will ruin all moneyline parlays,” Cipollini said.
Indeed, Packers moneyline was a key component to countless moneyline parlays Sunday. However, at South Point, the Browns’ upset was a mixed blessing.
“Believe it or not, the Browns were bad for us. There was a lot of money on the Browns,” Andrews said. “But I had a lot of moneyline parlays and teasers on the Packers, so that helped offset it.”
At Caesars, Browns outright was the second-best result of the day, behind only the Chicago Bears’ 31-14 win as 1.5-point underdogs vs. the Dallas Cowboys.
BetMGM enjoyed that Chicago victory, as well.
“A lot of good results, with the Bears the best of the day,” Cipollini said.
Field-Goal Frenzy
The aforementioned blocked kick in the Eagles-Rams game was part of a frenetic few minutes of field-goal attempts. The public betting masses made out well on two of the three games involved.
“A crazy 10 minutes basically decided the [early games], with last-second field goals in Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, pretty much all at the same time,” Caesars’ Feazel said. “Philadelphia’s block-six got the cover for the Eagles faithful, and the Bucs’ comeback late was a great result for the customers.”
Tampa Bay had it go both ways on late field goals against the New York Jets. The Buccaneers were looking to push their 26-20 lead to 29-20. But the Jets’ Will McDonald blocked a 43-yard attempt, then did a 50-yard scoop-and-score to put New York up 27-26 with 1:49 remaining.
Tampa responded by driving down the field, and Chase McLaughlin made amends with a 36-yard field goal as time expired, giving the Bucs a 29-27 victory. Tampa Bay failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite, but moneyline parlay bettors survived, needing Tampa to just win, regardless of margin.
But Caesars and countless other sportsbooks got some money back on Cleveland’s upset and Carolina’s surprising 30-0 shutout of Atlanta, with the Panthers a 4.5-point home underdog.
“The two big shocks on moneylines went against the customers, with the Panthers and Browns pulling upsets that swung the [early games] slightly against the public,” Feazel said.
On Campus
The SuperBook’s Murray and South Point’s Andrews concurred on a couple of key results in college football Week 4 odds:
Oklahoma was a favorite of -6/-6.5 most of the week at The SuperBook. In case you missed it, Oklahoma led 22-17, then got a safety with 1:06 left to seal a 24-17 win and cover.
“Oklahoma landing on 7 was not what we wanted,” Murray said.
At South Point, the Sooners toggled between -6.5/-7 and closed -7 before kickoff. With the winning margin landing on 7, Andrews had to pay all the Oklahoma -6.5 bettors and refund all the Auburn +7 bettors.
“That was terrible. We needed anything but a 7. We wrote business all week at Oklahoma -6.5 and Auburn +7,” Andrews said.
Murray and Andrews needed Florida, an 8.5-point road underdog, to stay within the spread.
“The Miami outcome was no good,” Murray said.
Added Andrews: “Miami and Indiana were bad. But we had an OK day. Clemson losing was good, and Maryland beating Wisconsin was really good.”
South Point needed Illinois, a 7-point road ‘dog vs. Indiana. But the Hoosiers went haywire, posting a 63-10 rout. On the flip side, Clemson was a 17.5-point home favorite and lost to Syracuse 34-21, and Maryland was a 10.5-point underdog at Wisconsin and won outright 27-10.
“We beat up on the wiseguys. But the public had a big day,” Andrews said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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