Nothing about the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs seems normal. But if there is any normal round, the quarterfinal round (Round of 12) would be it, with relatively straightforward tracks when it comes to strategy and setups.
At least that’s the case for New Hampshire and Kansas, the races that open this round. The Charlotte road course is notorious for unpredictable outcomes, with its mixed layout that uses parts of the oval and then an infield road-course portion.
NASCAR’s playoffs are based on three-race rounds (every team still competes even if not a playoff team). If a driver who’s still alive in the playoffs wins in the round, that’s an automatic bid to the next round. The four winless drivers with the fewest points are eliminated after each round.Â
Drivers have earned playoff points with stage and race wins, as well as based on their regular-season finishes, which are added to their point total when the points are reset at the start of each round, which can help them advance.
At the championship race, the best finisher among the four finalists is the champion.
The 2025 playoff tracks:
Opening Round (Round of 16): Darlington (winner: Chase Briscoe), World Wide Technology Raceway (winner: Denny Hamlin) and Bristol (winner: Christopher Bell).
Quarterfinal Round (Round of 12): New Hampshire (winner: Ryan Blaney), Kansas (1.5-mile oval) and Charlotte road course (2.28-mile road course). The only repeat track in this round is Kansas, where teams raced in May.Â
Semifinal Round (Round of Eight): Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.5-mile high-banked superspeedway) and Martinsville (0.528-mile oval). Teams have raced at all three of these tracks this year.
Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval). Teams last raced at Phoenix in March.
Here are my playoff rankings based on who has the best shot at winning the title:
1. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske: No. 12 Ford
Position: First, advanced with Loudon win
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 18th; Gateway, Fourth; Bristol, Fourth; Loudon, First
2025 Kansas finish:Â Third
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 10th
Blaney made a huge statement with the win at New Hampshire. Not only did he win, but he had the best car throughout the weekend and capitalized on the speed with great execution. He has a couple of weeks to relax as far as not worrying about the results, and that’s not something to ignore.
Prediction: Championship Four
2. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 11 Toyota
Position: Fifth, +27 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Seventh; Gateway, First; Bristol, 31st; Loudon, 12th
2025 Kansas finish: 36th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 14th
Hamlin didn’t do himself any favors within the walls of Joe Gibbs Racing as he turned Ty Gibbs relatively early in the New Hampshire race. He said it was a mistake, but it didn’t look like one. Is it a sign that the pressure is getting to Hamlin? Probably not. It was more a sign of what he feels the driver code should be when a non-playoff teammate is racing a playoff teammate. While it is doubtful that Ty Gibbs just takes him out in an upcoming race, even if he does, Hamlin still has enough of a points buffer to make it through.
Prediction: Championship Four
3. Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 20 Toyota
Position: Fourth, +29 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 29th; Gateway, Seventh; Bristol, First; Loudon, Sixth
2025 Kansas finish:Â Second
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Second
Bell finished sixth at New Hampshire but after the win a year ago at the track, it seemed like more was expected. The 29-point cushion, though, is good for a driver who has three career top-fives at Kansas and a win and two top-fives at the Charlotte road course. He should feel good about getting to the next round.
Prediction: Championship FourÂ
4. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: Third, +41 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 19th; Gateway, 12th; Bristol, 32nd; Loudon, Seventh
2025 Kansas finish:Â First
2024 Charlotte road course finish: First
Larson finally earned a top-10 finish in the playoffs, and he has a solid cushion to get to the next round. As the defending winner of Kansas and the Charlotte road course, he doesn’t need to win those races. But he has to be a threat in those to have a good feeling that he has found some of that speed he had earlier in the season in order to set up a championship run.
Prediction: Championship Four
5. Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 19 Toyota
Position: Eighth, +12 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, First; Gateway, Second; Bristol, Ninth; Loudon, 10th
2025 Kansas finish:Â Fourth
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 36th
The 10th-place finish was certainly respectable for Briscoe at New Hamsphire, but for a driver whose average finish at Kansas is 19.6 and average finish at the Charlotte road course is 23.8, he would have liked to have more of a buffer going into the next two races. Kansas will be key for him to give himself enough of a cushion to just need a decent day at Charlotte.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round
6. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: Second, +47 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 21st; Gateway, 11th; Bristol, 12th; Loudon, Third
2025 Kansas finish:Â Seventh
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Third
Byron was a solid third at New Hampshire as the best of the non-Penske finishers. In some ways, it was a very nondescript great day for Byron. More races like that and he’ll be in the final four. But is there confidence that there will be more races like that one? Time will tell.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
7. Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: Seventh, +14 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 17th; Gateway, Third; Bristol, 38th; Loudon, Fifth
2025 Kansas finish:Â 15th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Fifth
With finishes of 17th, third, 38th and fifth in the playoffs, it’s no wonder that it feels hard to predict how Elliott will perform the remainder of the playoffs. Starting 27th at New Hampshire and finishing fifth, though, shows the team can rebound. Elliott has won at both Kansas and the Charlotte road course, so he should feel good about the next two weeks.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
8. Joey Logano
Team Penske: No. 22 Ford
Position: Sxith, +24 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 20th; Gateway, Fifth; Bristol, Fifth; Loudon Fourth
2025 Kansas finish:Â Ninth
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Eighth
Logano led the most laps and finished fourth at New Hampshire. So is he ready to make a run at the championship? Meh. He had the fortune of testing at New Hampshire, something he doesn’t have for the other races. But if he repeats what he did at Kansas (14th) and the Charlotte road course (eighth) a year ago, he probably will advance to the next round.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round (change from eliminated in quarterfinal round)
9. Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing: No. 45 Toyota
Position: 11th, -23 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Second; Gateway, 16th; Bristol, 15th; Loudon, 21st
2025 Kansas finish:Â 17th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 11th
Reddick started fourth at New Hampshire but that just gave him some false hope, as he had a rough day at Loudon. In past visits, he’d be considered a threat at Kansas and the Charlotte road course. But the way his playoffs have gone, it’s hard to fathom.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal roundÂ
10. Bubba Wallace
23XI Racing: No. 23 Toyota
Position: 12th, -27 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Sixth; Gateway, Eighth; Bristol, 34th; Loudon, 26th
2025 Kansas finish:Â 33rd
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Ninth
Wallace had by far his worst performance in the playoffs with a 26th-place finish at New Hampshire. It wasn’t the worst result, but Wallace was nowhere to be found all day. He struggled. The adjustments didn’t seem to help, and now he’s in a huge hole. He does have one win and three top-10 finishes at Kansas, but it’s still a place where his average finish is 21.5. And he certainly doesn’t want to rely on needing a big points day at the Charlotte road course in order to advance.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
11. Ross Chastain
Trackhouse Racing: No. 1 Chevrolet
Position: Ninth, -12 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 11th; Gateway, 24th; Bristol, 19th; Loudon, Ninth
2025 Kansas finish:Â 18th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 28th
Chastain had his best finish of the playoffs at Loudon and took what appeared to be about a 10th-place car and finished in the top 10 with it. He won at Kansas a year ago, and he has two top fives at the Charlotte road course, so even though he is 12 points below the cut, a couple of strong finishes to lift him above the bubble isn’t out of the question.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
12. Austin Cindric
Team Penske: No. 2 Ford
Position: 10th, -19 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 12th; Gateway, 19th; Bristol, 30th; Loudon, 17th
2025 Kansas finish:Â 11th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Second
Cindric finished a disappointing 17th at New Hampshire and the playoffs seem to be slipping away from him. A 19-point deficit isn’t something he can’t overcome, but Kansas — a place where he doesn’t have a top-10 and an average finish of 23.6 — doesn’t seem to be the place to spark a rally for Cindric.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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