Apple is set to displace Samsung as the world’s top smartphone manufacturer, measured by shipment volume, according to analyst firm Counterpoint.
Samsung has topped the charts since 2011, but the firm says the recently-released iPhone 17 is selling better, faster, than its predecessor.
Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang said two other factors are fueling an iBoom.
“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” he said. “Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters.”
Wang said the iPhone’s tepid AI features aren’t a worry for buyers. Counterpoint thinks that once Apple improves its AI, “it will likely provide a further driver of upgrades.” The firm also thinks Apple will deliver “a major iPhone design revamp” in 2027 to mark the 20th anniversary of the iPhone.
Apple also got lucky when the USA and China declared a truce in their trade war, as that saw tariffs reduced and meant iPhones remained affordable in the US. “This not only helped Apple’s supply chain and the ongoing efforts to diversify manufacturing bases, but also aggregate demand in its key growth regions, i.e. emerging markets,” the firm wrote.
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The above factors lead Counterpoint to believe iPhone shipments will increase by ten percent in 2025, allowing Apple to exit the year with 19.4 percent smartphone market share. Samsung’s predicted share will be 18.7 percent, and according to Counterpoint the Korean giant doesn’t stand a chance of catching Apple until 2029.
Global smartphone shipments will rise 3.5 percent this year, Counterpoint thinks. Chinese OEMs like Oppo, Xiaomi, and vivo have had a tougher year, thanks to nervous Chinese consumers and supply chain weaknesses. The analyst firm thinks Chinese phone-makers will change strategy to pursue stable profits instead of market share growth.
If Counterpoint is correct, Apple will make the most popular smartphone, tablet computer, and laptop – the MacBook Air sells more than any other model of portable PC.
Cupertino does not, however, dominate the operating system market. But as Apple users need to be well-heeled, the rest of the industry is happy to cater to users of iOS, macOS, and iPadOS. ®
