As the US Open intensifies, all eyes are on a compelling Round-of-16 showdown between Canada’s Félix Auger-Aliassime and Russia’s Andrey Rublev. Auger-Aliassime arrives here off a sensational victory over third seed Alexander Zverev in the third round, a gritty four-set victory that sent shockwaves through the draw.
Rublev, meanwhile, has navigated his own path to the fourth round with composure, triumphing in three matches thus far. Looking across their 2025 campaigns, Auger-Aliassime has ridden a wave of confidence, having advanced through to this second week in some notable tournaments and shining on the hard courts this summer.
Rublev has also shown strong form recently, reaching the semifinals in Los Cabos with a comeback victory and earlier turning heads at the Toronto Masters with a third-round win over Lorenzo Sonego.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev Match Details
Date: September 1, 2025
Tournament: US Open
Round: Round of 16
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City
Category: Grand Slam
Surface: Outdoor hard
Live telecast: ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV and Sling TV
Auger-Aliassime vs. Rublev Head-to-Head
Rublev holds a commanding advantage over Auger-Aliassime with a 7–1 lead in their overall head-to-head meetings. Their most recent clash occurred on May 23, 2025, in the semifinals of the ATP 500 Hamburg Open. The match saw Rublev win decisively, 6–1, 6–4, and notably did not face a single break point, delivering a dominant performance with 18 winners.
The match lasted approximately one hour and twenty-five minutes, with the first set completed in just 35 minutes before Rublev sealed the match with another crucial break in the second set.
Auger-Aliassime vs. Rublev Prediction
On hard courts in 2025, Auger-Aliassime has compiled a solid record, with 23 wins to 9 losses (translating to a 72% win rate outdoors) and a standout 80% win rate indoors in Montpellier (4–1). Andrey Rublev, meanwhile, boasts a slightly stronger hard-court resume: 17 wins and 11 losses on hard surfaces, and he clinched the Qatar Open title, winning 78.9% of first-serve points in the final.
The biggest win of Felix Auger-Aliassime’s career ‼️
He becomes the third Canadian man to defeat an ATP Top-3 player at a major 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/DT5TTDC2Ey
— ESPN (@espn) August 31, 2025
Auger-Aliassime plays an all-court style with a particularly powerful indoor hard-court game. He moves exceptionally well, has a strong serve, and can generate pace from both wings, though he may be prone to unforced errors. Rublev, on the other hand, combines aggressive baseline hitting with disciplined court coverage. His deep groundstrokes and high first-serve effectiveness often put opponents on the defensive from the outset.
Rublev’s serve stats for 2025 are strong: an ace count of 386, a first-serve percentage of about 61%, and a notably high double-fault ratio of around 2.54. He also converts break points at roughly 36%. Auger-Aliassime, by contrast, recorded 476 aces this season, with a first-serve in rate around 67%, though with a somewhat higher double-fault rate (151 in 2025).
Given Rublev’s consistency on hard courts, efficient serving, and steady results (including his recent Doha title), he enters this matchup as a slight favorite, particularly if he can maintain pressure behind his first serve.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime to win in five sets
