Indiana vs. Oregon prediction, pick, spread, odds: Hoosiers, Ducks set for rematch in Peach Bowl CFP semifinal

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A rematch of two top Big Ten teams will determine which national championship participant comes out of Friday’s Peach Bowl in Atlanta. 

No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon have already faced each other this season, a 30-20 win in Eugene for the undefeated Hoosiers. It was a significant program accomplishment for Curt Cignetti in Year 2 of his miraculous Indiana rebuild, especially after an offseason narrative around the Hoosiers’ losses to Ohio State and Notre Dame lingered. Indiana definitively proved in that game — and every game since — it was no one-hit wonder. 

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Now the big question is can Indiana do it again? You can call it an overplayed narrative but it can be difficult to beat a team twice in one season. Georgia just learned that the hard way down in New Orleans against Ole Miss. 

CFP predictions: Why Indiana will win it all | Why Oregon will win a national title 

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Indiana seems to be peaking at the right time, coming into this one off an emphatic 38-3 Rose Bowl win over Alabama. But Oregon is battle-tested, too. The Ducks easily handled their first-round opponent, James Madison, before knocking off Texas Tech, 23-0, in one of the most impressive defensive performances of the season. With Dan Lanning leading the way, this team isn’t afraid of anything or anyone. 

Indiana vs. Oregon: Need to know for Peach Bowl How does Oregon run game hold up?: Oregon was dealt a significant blow Tuesday when running back Jordan Davison was officially ruled out for Friday’s Peach Bowl. Davison, who led the Ducks with 15 rushing touchdowns, suffered a broken clavicle in Oregon’s quarterfinal win over Texas Tech. Making the situation even more precarious is that Oregon is now down to only three healthy running backs with Jayden Limar and Makhi Hughes hitting the transfer portal. Fortunately for Oregon it still has Noah Whittington, who led the way with rushing attempts, but it’ll be interesting to see how Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein adjusts his gameplan without a significant piece like Davison. Whittington’s carries high this season was 17 — against Iowa and Washington — but that number will almost certainly have to go up against Indiana if Oregon wants to stay balanced. 

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Preview of top NFL picks: There is some variance across all the NFL mock drafts you can find out on the internet, but Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore are pretty consistently atop the projections. At CBS Sports, for instance, both Mike Renner and Josh Edwards both have Mendoza and Moore projected to go in the first two picks of the 2026 NFL Draft. We are still a long way from April’s draft, but if you’re a fan of say the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets or Arizona Cardinals, you’ll want to tune into the Peach Bowl to watch your potential next franchise quarterback. This is the kind of game that can play big in the minds of NFL executives and scouts when it comes time for the draft. Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner, has flown up the draft boards with a terrific season in Bloomington. He hasn’t officially declared for the draft but with the Hoosiers taking TCU quarterback transfer Josh Hoover, the signs are there. It’s a bit more up in the air with Moore who could still return to Eugene despite the possibility of being a top draft pick. One factor, too: Moore is still just 20-years old and this is his first season as the full-time starter after previously starting five games as a freshman at UCLA. 

Huge stakes for both programs: Indiana has never been anywhere close to this stratosphere of college football before. A Peach Bowl win over Oregon to send Indiana to its first national championship appearance would be remarkable. There will be books and movies made about Cignetti if he can get two more wins. Oregon has had much more success over the last two decades than Indiana, but still has never won a national championship. Nike co-founder Phil Knight desperately wants to see one. Oregon has played in two national championship games in the 21st century, a 22-19 loss to Auburn in 2011 and a 42-20 loss to Ohio State in 2015. The Ducks have been oh-so-close in the past, and another bite at the apple would be well appreciated in Eugene. 

Where to watch Indiana vs. Oregon live Date: Friday, Jan. 9 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)

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Even with the above caveat about it being hard to beat a team twice, I have to stick with Indiana in this game. It’s going to be difficult, and I would expect the margin to be closer than the first time around, but Indiana just does so many things so well. I completely trust Curt Cignetti and his coaching staff, I believe in Fernando Mendoza to deliver in the big moments and, ultimately, I think Indiana’s defense will give Oregon quarterback Dante Moore problems again. Pick: Indiana -3.5

Who will win and cover in each college football bowl and playoff game? SportsLine’s computer model just simulated each matchup 10,000 times and has revealed its picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all its college football picks.

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