After writing up the match report for the Newcastle United win against Ipswich, I became a bit obsessed with a statistic that occurred to me.
Our victory rubber-stamped the Tractor Boys relegation, making this the earliest point of any Premier League season where all relegated clubs are confirmed, with four rounds of games still to go.
It was also a landmark for Newcastle United in the Premier League, as the result confirmed maximum points had been taken from all of the relegated sides, a first in 30 attempts.
I don’t even have the patience to comb back over United’s entire top flight history to clarify if it has ever happened before, but I’m willing to bet it’s not a common occurrence, certainly in times where three clubs have been demoted.
This is a massive positive.
Many of us will still be unable to shake the hangover of the old Newcastle United, a club that could shoot itself in the foot anywhere, at any time. Travels to places like Swindon, Bradford, Barnsley and Blackpool were always embarked on with a sense of foreboding as superior Newcastle United teams contrived ways to not win.
We still bear the cross of being the only side beaten by Derby’s worst ever Premier League side, a tag that looks like sticking despite Southampton’s “efforts” this year.
I’ve said before that being able to dominate the weaker teams is enough to build a hugely successful season on. There are 60 points available from the bottom half clubs. If you take all of those points, that’s enough to get Europe in a typical season.
There have been a couple of wobbles in the Howe era, with an apparent blind spot for Luton Town last year, following on from an inability to defeat Leeds the year before. If this has now been eradicated in favour of a cold-eyed resilience in the face of less vaunted opposition, the immediate future has enormous promise.
A deeper dive into the Premier League table (on 27 April 2025, ahead of Sunday’s matches) adds even more encouragement.
Taking the bottom nine clubs in the table as a sample, United’s record for the season is excellent, standing as follows:
P17 W14 D2 L1 Pts 44
The draws in there are even extremely narrow, with Gordon’s missed penalty at Everton and an injury time Palace equaliser the difference in those games. The outlier is the one defeat, an inexplicable home loss to a woeful West Ham side that is, without doubt for me, the poorest performance of the season. With Everton at home still to come, a win could see an impressive 78% points return against the lower downs.
So, are Newcastle United flat track bullies then?
The answer here is absolutely not. To mirror this record against fellow European fighters in the top seven, United come out as follows:
P10 W4 D2 L4
Fairly respectable yes? However, if you were to factor the cups in, this becomes:
P15 W9 D2 L4
OK, so I’m counting beating Forest on penalties as a win, but however you slice that, this is an impressive record. It certainly offers some encouragement for the forthcoming visit of Chelsea that could be seismic, and even the trip to the Emirates to seek a seasonal quadruple over Arsenal.
Surely the headline here is that Newcastle are now extremely competitive in the big games. The fact that Spurs and Man Utd are hilariously included in the previous set of stats for bottom dwellers, but have also been ruthlessly doubled, would add impetus to this argument for anyone still counting either of these clubs as part of the established elite.
So, United are very good against whatever standard of opposition. Champions 2026 then eh? Er, now for the bad news.
In between these high fliers and underachievers lies a sticky middle ground that has become Newcastle’s soft underbelly this season. The clubs from 8th to 11th are now adrift of the major European battle and were never in the relegation picture. Our record against these relative mid-tablers reads as follows:
P7 W1 D1 L5
Or, if you add in the cups:
P9 W2 D1 L6
I’d call that relegation form.
It’s a quibble, of course, using a highly selective pool to convey a damning statistic, but here’s the thing: Newcastle have only lost 11 games in all competitions this season. This small sample of teams is responsible for 55% of our defeats. Given we’ve only lost 14% of all other games, that means we are basically four times more likely to lost to these clubs. Apologies, as I appreciate I’m not exactly filling people with confidence ahead of next weeks trip to the AMEX.
There is context though. Both of the wins above were from the same fixture, Brentford at home. Sandro Tonali’s bizarre cross/shot was needed to decide the recent PL game, whereas the same player was the star in a more comfortable League Cup win before Christmas. Even the away defeat to the Bees was down to a sloppy defensive showing from Newcastle in a fairly open 4-2 loss, as opposed to being nullified by the opponent. I’d suggest this is because Thomas Frank has a more toe-to-toe approach to games that generally works against them against Newcastle United, given that away defeat was an isolated incident, with United have won the other seven of the past eight matches.
The issue we seem to have is against teams that come to St James’ Park to frustrate, putting ten men behind the ball and breaking fast. Many have tried this, but the lower positioned sides lack the quality to keep United out, whereas top six teams fancy themselves more to come for a contest they might win. The teams in this middle section have the capability to maintain such frustration and double down on it should they snatch one on the break. Conversely, they are also good enough to execute a decent game plan on their own grounds, which has caught United on a couple of off days.
The solution to this lies in the summer. I think it’s a fair consensus that United have a first XI that can compete with anyone but there seems to be a drop off when we look to the bench to freshen a game up. This was perfectly illustrated at Villa Park, where the opposition’s relative strength in depth was the key factor in them running away with the second half.
The worst impact on this for me has been the Callum Wilson situation. His unavailability for so long this season robbed the manager of an option to put an alternative dangerous striker on the field, either eliciting a formation change to play as a pair with Isak or to give the main man a bit of a breather. The 22/23 version of Wilson appearing on occasion would have been worth a few dropped points for certain. It feels essential that some reliable Isak back-up is brought in that can start in his absence (enforced or otherwise) and push the Swede when he plays. The addition of another right sided option would also add ammo to the attack, as it feels like a either Murphy is fit and firing, or we force someone out of position over there. Throw in a bit more defensive pace for those pesky counter attacks and you’ve got yourself a title-challenging team, I kid you not.
Further to the above optimism, it’s probably worth clarifying a few things that throw a better light on next week’s venture to Brighton. We are officially into the “end of season” run where thing can divert from the norm, and hopefully Brighton’s recent patchy form continues, despite their very narrow win over West Ham on Saturday. With their main attacking threat missing due to Joao Pedro’s suspension and a solid eight days for Newcastle United to prepare, everything bar recent head-to heads seems in United’s favour. You could even argue that this is a more likely venue for success than SJP, as Brighton might fancy a kickabout as opposed to sitting nailed in their own box for 89 minutes of the 90. A draw might actually be a decent result in the scheme of things, although it could load a bit of pressure on to beat Chelsea. Again, I’m confident the consistent week of rest between games (coupled with the welcome return of Eddie Howe) will be a huge positive for the run in.
The run in is extremely important, as Champions League qualification maximises the potential for squad development outlined above. Hopefully we can build up to closing these fine margins, as this unforgettably successful season may well set United up for another that will live long in the memory.
You can follow the author on BlueSky @bigjimwinsalot.bsky.social
