Ohio State hits the road to defend its No. 1 ranking against insurgent Big Ten title hopeful No. 17 Illinois in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here is what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.
Two of college football’s head-to-head top 25 ranked games involve the Big Ten, and the Buckeyes and Illini will face off in one of those matchups, with the former looking to further cement its place as a playoff contender, and the latter looking to stay in the race.
College football’s reigning national champion is fielding a defense that might be even better than the one that won the title a year ago, as the Buckeyes have allowed just 5 points per game, 2 total touchdowns, and only 25 total points, all the fewest in FBS.
Illinois has rebounded from a 53-point loss against Indiana a few weeks ago by defeating ranked USC and then Purdue to improve to 5-1 overall, and quarterback Luke Altmyer is quietly having a solid outing, throwing 12 touchdowns with no turnovers.
Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
1. Red zoneAmong the Buckeyes’ many defensive strengths is their play in scoring position, and for the Illini when playing on offense.
They’re the only team in the country yet to allow a touchdown in the red zone and overall inside the 20 have surrendered points on just 37.5 percent of tries, and allowed opponents to get into that position just 8 times, both the lowest in FBS.
Illinois is fifth in the country on offense by getting into the red zone on 29 drives so far, and it has converted 24 of those possessions into points, with 17 of those being touchdowns.
—
2. Going deepOhio State is one of seven teams in the country that averages more than 10 yards per pass completion and newcomer Julian Sayin is singularly the most efficient passer in the nation, completing 79.4 percent of his pass attempts this season.
At the ready is a cadre of wide receivers among the best in the nation. Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are both over 430 total yards and together combine for 15 yards per catch while accounting for 10 of the Buckeyes’ 14 touchdowns through the air.
Illinois has struggled when defending against the pass this season, ranking a dismal 113th out of 136 FBS teams so far, allowing over 252 yards per game on average.
This secondary allows over 7 yards per pass while surrendering almost 65 percent efficiency to opponents and has just 2 interceptions, a potential weakness when lining up against Ohio State’s proven aerial attack.
—
3. On the groundIllinois may be playing some of its most productive overall offense in many years, but those yards are not equally distributed, as the ground game ranks 100th in the country and only averaged at least 3 yards per carry in one game against the Power Four.
Conversely, the Buckeyes’ rushing defense has allowed only one opponent to average more than 2.8 yards per carry, and just one team to gain over 94 total yards on the ground, while their offense posts more than 5.1 yards per carry with 10 TDs.
—
Ohio State is a 14.5 point favorite against Illinois on the road, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.
FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.
And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -650 and for Illinois at +480 to win outright.
—
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The most consequential matchup of the game could prove to be the Buckeyes’ pass rushers against Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer.
When he’s not under pressure, he’s great. When he’s under pressure, not so much.
With tacklers in his face, Altmyer is completing 77.5 percent of his pass attempts with all of his 12 touchdowns. Under pressure, he’s hitting 57.9 percent of his throws with no touchdowns. This season, he’s been under duress on 34 percent of his dropbacks.
Combining that pressure with the relative weakness of the Illini ground game, and adding in the efficiency and balance of the Buckeyes’ offensive output, this game appears to be going one way, and it’s not one that results in an upset.
College Football HQ picks…
More: Ohio State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert model
—
When: Sat., Oct. 11
Where: Illinois
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
—
