The Big Ten and Big 12 meet in the 2025 Alamo Bowl when the No. 16 USC Trojans take on the TCU Horned Frogs in the final game on the Tuesday college football bowl schedule. USC went 9-3 and was in the CFP mix until a loss to Oregon on Nov. 22 ended any realistic chances. TCU went 8-4 and ended the regular season on a two-game winning streak. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava is playing, but he won’t have his top three targets as receivers Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon and tight end Lake McRee have all opted out. TCU’s most notable absence is quarterback Josh Hoover, who is heading to the transfer portal.
Kickoff from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas is at 9 p.m. ET. The Trojans are 4.5-point favorites in the latest USC vs. TCU odds, while the over/under is 56.5. Before making any TCU vs. USC picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season.
Now, the model has set its sights on TCU vs. USC. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for USC vs. TCU:
USC vs. TCU spread
USC -4.5
USC vs. TCU over/under
56.5 points
USC vs. TCU money line
USC -199, TCU +166
USC vs. TCU picks
See picks at SportsLine
USC vs. TCU streaming
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How to make USC vs. TCU picksAfter simulating this matchup 10,000 times, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (56.5 points). The total has dropped since opening at 58.5, with absences such as Hoover and Lemon factoring into that.
USC, however, should still be able to move that ball with Maiava leading the charge. Freshman receiver Tanook Hines should be able to step up and be a top target, while USC’s run game remains in good shape with King Miller leading that way.
The Horned Frogs have a capable backup quarterback in Ken Seals who can step in. Seals didn’t play much this year, but has over 700 career passing attempts dating back to his time at Vanderbilt from 2020-23. TCU receiver Eric McAlister, an NFL prospect, has decided to play, giving TCU another spark on offense. SportsLine’s model is projecting 65 combined points as the Over hits well over 60% of the time.
The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins TCU vs. USC, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that’s simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.
