The Baltimore Ravens have experienced a roller-coaster 2024 season but entered the playoffs with a four-game winning streak.
Now, after defeating their AFC-North-rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round, let’s examine the Ravens’ likeliest opponents in the Divisional Round.
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What Are the Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 3 seed, there are two potential opponents for the Ravens in the Divisional Round. The two teams they cannot face in the Divisional Round are the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos and the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs.
For all scenarios outlined in this article, the key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff) where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
Therefore, the Ravens can’t host the Broncos next round because Baltimore can’t be the highest-seeded team standing after the Wild Card round. They also won’t see the Chiefs yet because the Ravens can’t be the lowest-seeded team remaining either.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Ravens’ most likely opponent is the Buffalo Bills. With the No. 2 seed favored to beat the Broncos at home (61.8%), the Ravens and Bills would be the two middle seeds remaining and face off in the Divisional Round.
There is a 61.8% chance that the Ravens play their Divisional Round game in Buffalo. The Ravens have a 38.2% chance of hosting the No. 4 seed Houston Texans.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket: Divisional Round Schedule, Playoff Seeds, Matchups
As outlined above, the Ravens would face the second-seeded Bills if Buffalo wins at home against Denver. At that point, the Texans’ win over the Chargers would have been irrelevant to Baltimore’s Divisional Round destination.
If the Broncos pull off the road upset, Baltimore will face the Texans. That’s due to Denver being the lowest-seeded team in the AFC field, which means the Broncos would automatically draw the two-time defending champion Chiefs.
A Broncos win would result in the Ravens hosting a Divisional Round game instead of heading on the road.
The Ravens played both of their potential Divisional Round opponents and demolished all of them. Baltimore went 2-0 against the Bills and Texans during the regular season, winning by a combined score of 76-20 (+56). The Bills and Broncos’ losses to the Ravens were their largest of the regular season.
Could the Ravens Host the AFC Championship Game?
Yes, but it will require both the Bills and Chiefs losing before AFC Championship Game, since Buffalo and Kansas City are seeded higher than Baltimore.
In the case of the Bills, the Ravens could potentially take care of that themselves. Baltimore and Buffalo appear headed on a collision course in a matchup of the top two MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The two also met in the 2020 Divisional Round in Buffalo, with the Bills prevailing 17-3 after Jackson left the game in the third quarter with a concussion.
However, the Ravens would still be dependent on a lower seed upsetting the two-time defending Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs can face the Texans or Broncos in the Divisional Round. In every scenario, Kansas City will be a significant home favorite.
The only teams seeded third or lower to host a Conference Championship since 2000 are the 2021 Los Angeles Rams (No. 4 seed), 2008 Arizona Cardinals (No. 4 seed), and 2006 Indianapolis Colts (No. 3 seed). All three of those teams won to advance to the Super Bowl.
